Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Rumours of Mulcair's Demise Premature

Tom Mulcair Describing his Fear of Trudeaumania II
Mulcair might go down to ignominious defeat in the projected 2015 Canadian Election, or he may win a majority government.  Current polls are in no way capable of projecting outcomes two years in advance. There is no magic at play, and anyone who says otherwise is simply looking for attention. As accurate as polling may be in capturing current intentions, people's minds change.  Two years is nearly a political life-time and the most we can observe now are some signs of trends.  There are several which I would like to discuss.  If the current Harris Decima poll (late April 2013) is correct (and it seems to be close enough to being accurate) than longer term trends are clearly visible just under the headlines of the rise of Justin Trudeau.

Prime Minister Harper and his party are still doing very well in the West, especially Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  Interestingly, he is doing better in the last two than in the former.  The NDP is still very strong in Quebec and strong on the question of who cares about people "like me", and the Liberals are doing well in the Maritimes and in Ontario.  The NDP are also competitive in the Martimes, Ontario and The West.

The Liberals have been gaining in Quebec, but the NDP's support is not exactly evaporating contrary to doomsday prophesy in the media since the 2011 election.

Under these longer term trends (which have been the conventional wisdom for several decades) there is also the rise of the Trudeau Liberals.  But, let's keep in mind that that has just happen and there is typically a honeymoon period with any new leader.

Though leadership often trumps policy, there is little reason to see Mulcair as lacking on that front either.  Compared to Harper, Mulcair is charismatic.  When compared to Trudeau, Mulcair is a silver tongued orator who reminds one of Mulroney.

Thomas Mulcair may have slipped in recent weeks, but there is still a long time to go and the narrative we are faced with on election day is almost certainly entirely unpredictable at this present moment.

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