|Tom Mulcair Describing his Fear of Trudeaumania II|
Prime Minister Harper and his party are still doing very well in the West, especially Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Interestingly, he is doing better in the last two than in the former. The NDP is still very strong in Quebec and strong on the question of who cares about people "like me", and the Liberals are doing well in the Maritimes and in Ontario. The NDP are also competitive in the Martimes, Ontario and The West.
The Liberals have been gaining in Quebec, but the NDP's support is not exactly evaporating contrary to doomsday prophesy in the media since the 2011 election.
Under these longer term trends (which have been the conventional wisdom for several decades) there is also the rise of the Trudeau Liberals. But, let's keep in mind that that has just happen and there is typically a honeymoon period with any new leader.
Though leadership often trumps policy, there is little reason to see Mulcair as lacking on that front either. Compared to Harper, Mulcair is charismatic. When compared to Trudeau, Mulcair is a silver tongued orator who reminds one of Mulroney.
Thomas Mulcair may have slipped in recent weeks, but there is still a long time to go and the narrative we are faced with on election day is almost certainly entirely unpredictable at this present moment.